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Homogeneity and Synchrony in Population Dynamics
Colloquium| Speaker: | David Earn, University of Cambridge, UK |
| Location: | 693 Kerr |
| Start time: | Tue, Jan 19 1999, 12:10PM |
Description
The simplest population models for predators-prey interactions and
epidemics of disease are based on the assumption that populations are
homogeneously mixed. However, recent studies of measles epidemics
have concluded that age-related heterogeneities have a profound
dynamical effect and that homogeneous models cannot explain observed
epidemics. I will show that, in fact, the aggregate behaviour of
age-structured epidemic models is effectively equivalent to that of a
homogeneous model with external forcing, and I will argue that
seasonal variation in contact rates is the key determinant of the
temporal pattern of measles epidemics. I will also discuss some new
results concerning synchronization of population dynamics in different
spatial locations, and the potential importance of synchronization in
vaccination programs.