Mathematics Colloquia and Seminars

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Development of treatment interventions in the anti-infective space is pivotal given the emergence and re-emergence of respiratory and sexually transmitted viral infections and their significant threat to global public health.  Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) may cause a lower respiratory tract (LRT) infection characterized by bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children and the elderly, imposing a severe burden for pediatric and geriatric health systems. There is an unmet need for novel therapeutics given the only approved therapy, a monoclonal antibody, is recommended for prophylactic use in high-risk patients. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to pose a realistic threat, despite the development of antiretroviral therapy (ART), due to 32,100 new HIV infections reported in the US in 2021. A major deterrent in HIV prevention methods including pre-exposure (PrEP) and post-exposure (PEP) prophylaxis is drug-resistance, requiring the development of combination therapies to reduce viral load and restore drug efficacy. In this talk, we will discuss two case studies examining the creation of mechanistic ordinary differential equation models of RSV and HIV viral infection dynamics with pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models for treatments to correlate the inhibitory drug response with the drug concentration in plasma. Calibration and validation of these models utilizing both pre-clinical and clinical data sets and a virtual population approach improves model confidence and allows for exploration of key questions such as treatment duration, time of intervention, and efficacy in light of drug-resistance.

Zoom: https://ucdavis.zoom.us/j/92718892837